🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.